Profit Payoff Decision Role Play Activity [WLOs: 1, 2, 3] [CLO: 5]
Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 24 of your textbook.
Imagine that you are a successful business executive for a toy company, ChoiceToys. You are tasked to market one of the two new toys for the upcoming holiday season based on an optimal decision strategy. As the data analyst, you will be responsible for providing the expected profit payoff and associated probabilities.
Part 1 (Due by Day 3)
In your initial post, using the scenario below, you will be acting as the data executive speaking to a data analyst. You will need to speak to the data analyst and get more information so you can develop a decision analysis. Given the information the data analyst has provided, what more data do you think you need to create a decision analysis?
Toy 1 is being introduced to the market for the first time by ChoiceToys with no market competition. ChoiceToys believes that competitors will not be able to bring a similar toy to the market for this upcoming holiday season. You are not sure how the toy will be received by the consumers and there is equal chance that it will be highly successful, successful, or not successful. You will need to determine what the expected profit payoff will be and provide this in your scenario.
Toy 2 has been in the market, is known to consumers, and is in demand; however, it has two other competitors in the marketplace. If marketed, ChoiceToys will be one of the three companies selling this toy in the market in the upcoming holiday season. You will have to determine the profit payoff for Toy 2 respectively for a highly successful, successful, and not successful case. You will also need to determine the probability that Toy 2 will be highly successful in the market and equal chances for being successful or not successful in the market.
Part 2 (Due by Day 6)
As a data analyst, you need to use decision analysis techniques to recommend decision alternatives or optimal decisions based on expected profit payoff for the upcoming holiday season. Respond to one of your peers’ initial posts, and complete the following:
- Identify the sequence of actions you need to take to start this decision process.
- Explain each sequence and justify why it will help you with your decision.
- Propose a risk profile for each choice.
Guided Response: Your initial response should be a minimum of 300 words in length. Respond to at least two peers by Day 7. In your first response, critique one of your peers’ Part 1 scenarios. In your second response, critique a student’s Part 2 reply to the scenario that has not been critiqued by others, for each of the following:
- Missing or out of place sequences of actions. Justify your assessment.
- Determination of essential decisions and uncertainties. Justify your reasons.
- Determination of risk profile for each choice. Explain your assessment.
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