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Method for Estimating Annual Energy Production Using Monte Carlo Wind Speed Simulation

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Development of the Monte Carlo wind speed simulation

Data analysis

Method construction

2. Verification of data

Filter the raw wind speed data with respect to unusual and unrealistic wind speed

observations

Verify the power curve of the test wind turbines

  • Rated power given by manufacturer 2.5 kW

kW) by comparing the

calculation to the actual power production data

3. Verification of method

Conduct autocorrelation analysis of the wind speed data to determine the length of blocks

in the MC wind speed simulation

Generate estimates of the wind speed densities based on the MC wind speed simulation

and compare these estimates to the density based

on actual wind speed observations from the site; This is done at a 10 m measurement height

Simulate AEP assuming the test wind turbines based on the 2.5kW power

curve and compare these values to the observed AEP to evaluate the accuracy of the

two wind speed simulations

more details and data to validate the model will be given

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