Statistics & Probability Discussion.
Statistics & Probability Discussion.
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Probability
M1-Ch1-2 Qz(from module 1)
N RESPONSE NEEDED
Posted by Sanjay Patel
I choose American Roulette for my casino game. American Roulette differs from European Roulette because it has an extra number, green 00. This means on American Roulette there are 38 numbers opposed to 37 on European Roulette, making the houses odds even better. There are 18 black numbers, 18 red numbers and 2 green (Roulettestar.com, 2017).
- Do you think the organization makes a profit even if there is a “payoff” to some lucky customer?
I choose American Roulette because I like the game, however I never realized the odds of winning were the worst of all casino games. The casino has a 5.26% edge over gamblers. Whereas in a game like Blackjack the casino only has 0.13% edge over gamblers (Parker, 2020). So with an edge like that the casino will make money, even if there is a lucky customer. The casino should make money over the short run and will definitely make money over the long run.
- Do you believe the game is a worthwhile investment? Statistics & Probability Discussion.
After looking at my research American Roulette is definitely not a good investment. For example if you were to bet on black there are 18 ways to win which is 18/38 (47.37%), however, there are 20 ways to lose 20/38 (52.63%). This gives the house an edge of 5.26% (52.63%-47.37%). The odds are stacked against you and you will lose in the long run.
- Would you “put money down” if given a chance? Statistics & Probability Discussion.
I now will probably never play American Roulette again for real money, I will play for fun. My odds are better playing a game like Blackjack where the home only has 0.13% edge.
References
Parker, K. (2020, April 28). Casino Games with the Best Odds. Statistics & Probability Discussion.
Retrieved from https://www.casinosites.us/blog/casino-games-with-the-best-odds/ (Links to an external site.)
Roulettestar.com. (2017, April 16). American vs. European Roulette.
Retrieved from https://www.roulettestar.com/articles/american-vs-european/
SECOND DISCUSSION POST MODULE 3 Posted by Kyle Langerman
Class,
- Do you think the organization makes a profit even if there is a “payoff” to some lucky customer?
- Do you believe the game is a worthwhile investment? Statistics & Probability Discussion.
- Would you “put money down” if given a chance?
One of the most written about casino games regarding having a winning edge against the house is blackjack. Depending on who you are, what your strategy is and whether or not you have had a good run in your past, blackjack may seem like the most lucrative opportunity in a casino. We all know the side bets and other games the casinos try to add on to the game of blackjack help increase their take, is this because they expose themselves the most risk to blackjack already or do they know they can get even more from the gamblers? Clearly casinos make a profit over the long run with blackjack when you consider the dealer can take from multiple players at once when the house wins. My history with blackjack has been successful, so successful that at one point i refered to the the tables on one Vegas trip as “hitting the ATM” to take some cash out before a night on the town. In my experience if you try to make a quick buck on blackjack you will likely be disappointed, however if you have a long run strategy and get out while you are ahead it can bring you both some joy and possibly some winnings. Unfortunately there are no casinos nearby, I have lived near them in the past and would enjoy putting some money in the ring once every few months to knock the dust off my skills and hit the tables. Do I think it is a long term investment plan or an easy way to make money, no i do not. Some people have made careers off high stakes blackjack and they believe in a system that works in the long run, however you have to be able to stomach losses as huge as the potential winnings.
-Kyle
Holodny, E. (2014, June 25). 12 things everyone should know before stepping up to a blackjack table. Business Insider. Retrieved September 26, 2021, from https://www.businessinsider.com/blackjack-basics-2014-6.
PART 4 DISCUSSION RESPONSE POST From Dylan Fields
When you look at a company like Apple, they bring out a new phone, computer, and or tablet every year for their consumers. When Apple is making their new phone or computer for the year, they will probably look at a bell curve of what people use their products for the most. Take a look at the new iPhone 13 that came out this year. When you look at the phone compared to the iPhone 12 that came out last year there are a few differences and a few similarities. Apple could have used a survey of their customers to see what they want new and what they want to stay the same. If we were to look at it in a bell curve you would most likely see most of the people wanted a new camera, a better screen, and longer battery life. Then you would have some outliers of a new body design, folding phone. Taking these results into account apple can then design their new phone to come out with the products that most of their users wanted and be able to sell the most phones. Statistics & Probability Discussion.
Using the normal distribution when designing a new phone, tablet, or computer can help a company like Apple to sell the most products when they come out. Yes, you will have the so-called “fanboy” that will always be buying the new product that comes out but when you design something to a normal distribution and incorporate most of the stuff that people are requesting to be in the new phone then you are most likely to sell the most product.
Some ethical ramifications that can come from always designing to the normal distribution are that if you always design something to the normal distribution then you are leaving out the people that do not fall into the center of the curve. When you leave out these people, they have a good possibility of becoming more and more aggravated and feeling that they are not being heard and there is a possibility that they will move on from your company to a different one. Statistics & Probability Discussion.
Second post from another student on module 4 discussion: from Michael Galindo
- Would using the normal distribution would be advantageous for the company? Why or why not? For most companies that supply a large a amount of product I believe it is a very valuable tool to use. it can help you narrow down the product sizes/styles that will make the most while also showing you the amount of said item you should produce in those sizes and styling so that the company would be cost efficient and produce less waste. The only downside is it will lead to limited selection for any outliers but then again it would allow the company to recognize it and fix it.
- What are some ethical ramifications of designing products using information based on the normal distribution? The largest ethical ramifications for the company I chose (lululemon) would be their sizing in using a large number of statistics to find out which clothes styles and sizes sell best they would eventually get to the point where they’ve fine tuned it enough that they have the people that fall within 2 standard deviations (≈95%) (in the past it was less but due to some publicity they expanded their size range) of the sizes or styles so much that they begin to exclude outliers so anyone that is too small or large will not be able to wear clothes from that brand and it could potentially lead to public disapproval. The larger question on the ethics side is if they are okay with excluding people because those outliers don’t bring in enough money and or the cost to cater to those outliers wouldn’t be as cost effective I.E making to many of a low bought item and having it go to waste. (They did have had accusations of only tending to certain body types in the past and have since talked about extending there sizing to include more people.).
- (Clare O’Connor Oct 8, 2015, Forbes. lululemon Billionaire Chip Wilson: I Was Board’s ‘Scapegoat’ After Fat-Shaming)
SECOND DISCUSSION POST ON MODULE 4 From Alexia Hoefs
- I chose task 6 Figure 4 and 7 Figure 5:Dr. Wood, B. (2018). Seeing and Understanding Data. file:///C:/Users/alexi/Downloads/Seeing%20and%20Understanding%20Data.pdfTask 6 Given that this pie chart was created in 1805, what do you think each slice of the pie chart
represents?By the looks of it, it appears that each portion of the pie chart is either a State of the United States at the time, or otherwise a territory that wasn’t divided into states yet. I believe there were about 17 states at the time in 1805 but I could be wrong, but the pie chart does align with my thought process. It got really cramped and hard to read some of the words. Task 7 A map of the United States in 1804 is shown below. Why do the proportions represented by
the slices of the pie chart in Figure 4 look different than how we would expect those of a pie
chart of the present day United States to look?I think the map looks different because the pie chart was more generalized and the map was more detailed. I’m honestly not even close to a history guru and so that’s the only thing I could think of. But when it comes to the present day, we have 50 states and not just the 17 that were roughly in 1805. So the pie chart would be divided up into 50 slices, but at that point, a pie chart wouldn’t be the most appropriate way to display the U.S. Would be if someone was trying to show which states were republican and which were democratic, but even then, there are better options. ReplyReply to Comment - SECOND from Louise Kelly
- Task 6; Figure 4.Given that this pie chart was created in 1805, what do you think each slice of the pie chart represents?I was drawn to looking at this chart because of how direct the statement was upon first glance. It looks like this chart was created as a visual representation of the land mass taken up by the territories back then before they were the states we know today. Pie charts are an easier visual guide for a lot of statistical information because you get the quick picture of what are the larger slices versus the smaller slices. Upon first glance here, without question we see that the Louisiana western territories were the largest slice of the pie. Immediately we see that they take just over half of the total. The majority of the north eastern take up very little of the chart, some don’t even have a legible name to be seen. Task 7; Figure 5.A map of the United States in 1804 is shown below. Why do the proportions represented by the slices of the pie chart in Figure 4 look different than how we would expect those of a pie chart of the present day United States to look?I chose this task as it goes hand in hand with the above task. As opposed to the pie chart, this is a geographically scaled map of America that has the territories and states shown exactly where they are located. As with the pie chart, the largest areas stand out first, but it is hard to know exactly the size in comparison between a lot of states and territories at first glance. The Louisiana purchase compared to the viceroyalty of New Spain looks like it could be bigger, but the latter does look longer. Some of the smaller states like Tennessee and Kentucky make it somewhat difficult to decide which one actually takes up the most land.To conclude, the map of the America showing exactly where the territories lie is a good visual representation as to where these states and territories are on the country, but to gauge who has the most land and who has the least, the pie chart takes on that responsibility. It gives us an exact cut of the pie to compare to the others and gives us a solid answer.
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